Effective Date - July 1, 2006

903                 Determining the Best Estimate

Child Care - ARW, Chapt. 1, Purchase of Service

Food Stamps - 7 CFR 273.10

Family Care, Children’s Programs - 20 CFR 416, Subpart K, 42 CFR 435, Subpart G; 45 CFR 233.10-.38

POWER - ARW, Chapt. 1, Section 9

                        Utilize the DFS 107, optional for all programs, to determine eligibility prospectively for all benefit months using the best estimate of income anticipated to be received during the benefit month. (Realize prospective budgeting began 4/1/94 for AFDC and Food Stamps.)

                        A.    "Best Estimate" of Prospective Gross Countable Income

1.    Anticipate income as follows when the income is discontinued in the month of application.

a.    Use the actual income received in the month of application; and/or

b.    Use the best estimate of any income due the applicant when the actual amount is unknown; and

c.    Use a combination of a. and b. when both occur; and

d.    Recalculate the second benefit month, using zero income, when the income ceases in the month of application and no other income is anticipated.

2.    Anticipate income for the benefit month in which it is available.

3.    Use the income of the minor parent and her/his child(ren) but DO NOT use the income of the minor’s parent(s) to determine Child Care eligibility.


4.    Review the best estimate each time a change in circumstances is reported or becomes known and at the time of a periodic review/recertification.

5.        DO NOT recalculate the best estimate for Family Care until the 12 month review; and

6.        DO NOT recalculate the best estimate for 12M unless there is a job loss and determine if eligibility exists for the adult in another medical coverage group.

7.        Use the following as the basis for estimating gross countable income for the benefit month(s):

a.    Verify previous income by pay stubs when there is at least a 30 day history, but do not exceed 60 days history, and DOCUMENT the case record indicating how the best estimate was calculated when a change in circumstances is not expected.  (Both earned and unearned income must be included in the estimate.)

b.    Require an employer statement or other verification as the basis for the best estimate when an applicant or recipient does not have at least a 30 day history or the history is not reflective of the future. (Both earned and unearned income must be included in the estimate.)

c.    Estimate tips, commissions, overtime, differential pay, etc., when the employment is of such a nature one or more of these are likely.

d.    Use income and business expenses (see Section 902) that fairly represent the prospective benefit month(s) for a self-employed applicant or recipient whose income is irregular.

e.    Prorate or average income from self-employment, employment on a contractual basis or income received intermittently over the period covered by the income (quarterly, semi-annual or yearly basis) unless the income is not indicative of future months.

Exception:  Allow the Family Care/children’s assistance unit to have the income anticipated on a month-by-month basis rather than over the period covered when advantageous to the assistance unit.

e.        Allow Food Stamp assistance units to elect, in writing, to have the income averaged over the certification period;


f.          Count monthly or semimonthly income as follows when a problem with the payroll (i.e., mail or computer problems) causes additional checks in one month:

(1)     If payment is regularly received semimonthly but a problem causes three checks to be received in one month, count only two;

(2)     If payment is regularly received monthly but a problem causes two checks to be received in one month, count only one.

h.    Recognize the method(s) used to anticipate gross countable income during the benefit month will vary according to the circumstances in each case.

(1)   Come to an agreement with the client when deciding the best approach to determine the best estimate.

(2)   DOCUMENT clearly and thoroughly in the case record the method used and the rationale for the best estimate.

B.    Best Estimate For Cases With An Income History

1.        Review the income documents and information obtained during the interview to determine what income is best reflective of future circumstances.

2.        Base the best estimate upon the verified income history of at least 30 days and not to exceed 60 days when it is representative, and no changes are expected, to anticipate income for the benefit month(s).

a.    Add verified gross income from each pay period; and

b.    Divide the total by the number of pay periods considered; and

c.    Multiply gross income by 4.3 for weekly amounts, by 2.15 for bi-weekly amounts, by 2 for semi-monthly amounts and by 1 for monthly amounts; and

d.    Round up to the nearest dollar to determine the monthly amount to be anticipated for the benefit month(s).

Exception:  Allow the Family Care/children’s assistance unit to have the income anticipated on a month-by-month basis rather than using the 4.3 or 2.15 conversion when advantageous to the assistance unit.


3.    DOCUMENT in the case record the type of verification and the rationale actually used in the determination of the best estimate.

C.   Best Estimate For Cases Anticipating a Change(s) or With No Income History

1.    Require an employer's statement when the income history is not representative of current or future benefit months or is not available, beginning a new job, increase/decrease in hours worked or rate of pay, etc.;

2.    Use the client's and your own reasonable expectations of future circumstances to arrive at a best estimate;

a.    Multiply gross income by 4.3 for weekly amounts, by 2.15 for bi-weekly amounts, by 2 for semi-monthly amounts and by one for monthly amounts; and

Exception:  Allow the Family Care/children’s assistance unit to have the income anticipated on a month-by-month basis rather than using the 4.3 or 2.15 conversion when advantageous to the assistance unit.

b.    Add the anticipated monthly gross income from all sources; and

c.    Round up to the nearest dollar to determine the monthly amount to be anticipated for the benefit month(s).

d.    DOCUMENT the type of verification and the computation of the amount of anticipated income in the case record.

D.   Use the Best Estimate of Income form (DFS 107, optional for Family Care, Food Stamps and Children’s Programs) to document the calculation and methodology used to determine the best estimate of earned and/or unearned income.

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